Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model

Natural gas is one of the main energy sources in Poland and accounts for about 15% primary consumed country. covers only 1/5 its demand from domestic deposits. The rest imported Russia, Germany, Norway, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Central Asia. An important issue concerning market resources question direct impact prices on income exporting importing countries. It should also be remembered that unexpected large fluctuations are detrimental to both exporters importers fuels. article analyzes natural deposits Poland, raw material trade proposes a model forecasting volume consumption, which takes into account historical assumptions Poland’s policy until 2040. A hybrid was built by combining ARIMA with LSTM artificial neural networks. validity constructed assessed using ME, MAE, RMSE MSE. average percentage error 2%, means largely represents real consumption course. obtained forecasts indicate an increase